Small position entered due to small momentum in the market
No solution in Oil short term is compelling to me.
Please check again your own risk before making a position and you may check my trading position updates at Trading Entry History.
As for this pair, i'm just going with the flow. While uncertainities will keep coming over the next month till US Presidential election ends, this pair will hit 100 mark with no difficulty.
Again, please mind your risk management while entering a trading position.
Forex Trading Update 27 September 2016 (2)
There are a lot of things we need to consider looking at the current price movements and first i'd like to discuss oil first then some other currencies.
When we start to some OPEC meeting then Oil will start rallying then after a dissapointment then it will drop down. Traders need to know how the market behaves now adays too. On my last view about Oil i stated that i expect then to gone down to 43.7 level but i was wrong. There are some OPEC meeting waiting ahead and so, that downside is only a momentary, not lasting one. Unless we are far away from the next meeting, the downside movement in oil will not be sustainable. But nevertheless, expect Oil to come down again once the meeting show a dissapointment once more again.
German IFO last night was not bad. Considering the limit of easing that might make ECB's inaction, the worst case seems like to be over for now. EUR/USD might maintain a strong upside push but the risk will come back after Brexit's article 50 haunts us back. The lack of catalyst makes me unable to trade this pair for now. I will wait till a better momentum but i remain bullish in near term.
Althought it seems tempting to buy GBP/USD from such a low price, i will not recommend it. Bank Of England still in easing mode and it will be risky to buy this pair right now. It is different from banks that have reached limit oif easing such as ECB and BOJ. I'm neutral on this pair right now due to the last dovish FED's projection.
This pair follows stock's movement quite a lot. When the stock tumbles then this pair go down as well. Then after a relief rally this pair goes up again. But it's actually the same as precious metal that this is short term only. I remain bearish in this pair and i might initiate a position at any moment. Surely i need a better timing first but at the very least i got a plan for that.
At current moment, it would be quite dangerous to short this pair since we need to wait OPEC decision first. The bias for this pair is bullish short term due to the last data released from Canada. If you like then try to long it and bet on dissapointment in OPEC. The deal will be hardly done after all the target from IRAN to produce has not been fulfilled yet. As for me, i will wait for the next data and next catalyst to trade this pair. As what Poloz says, they will not recover as long Oil remains low. But to tell you the truth, it is better to long commodity pair currencies now. While their currency will be lower due to easing, their currency got a lift off from commodities rallies.
I believe there is nothing to see here. It's like seeing a reversal effect after Presidential debate. As for now, emerging market rallies with that event. I'm bullish on this pair and suggest to buy on dips. I will be thinking about buying after i find the right momentum. And surely the same outlook too for NZD/USD.
Forex Trading Update 27 September 2016
The first presidential debate and let's discuss first what we can trade from this. To tell you the truth, i wish to discuss some views from the debate but i believe that you guys would like to read my analysis better and how you can make money from it. More than that, the current condition is too dark. I might even fear that i might get killed if i'm slipping off some data publicly (i know something dark but i won't post it since i want to still alive). Ok, let's start!
First of all the main focus will be the stocks market since they tumbled at the beginning of the debate and it gains relief rally right now. Why? Because every sharp and sensitive things thrown by Trump is being taken as a joke only and media laughs on it. Not all traders watch the live debate and some only get a live tweet from reporters which took side on Hillary's side based on what i watch vs what i see on their live tweets. Since Hillary seems to be dominating the game just now, stocks market go with a relief rally.
It deeps to 2140 but did not go over 2139 at the first downside movement. So after it is safe from the critical point then it rallies again to 2160.
"Whew... is the bull market saved for now?"
Nah, not really. It will become a roller coaster now adays. It might rally and keep going down just like pre-Brexit's effect. The difference is the rally will be focused on stocks market.
"Why we need to know about the stocks market?" "Will currencies market got effected by it?"
They will. Try to check a mini crash at 24 August 2015. When mini crash happen, EUR/USD rallied from 1.12 to 1.17 level in a single day and USD/JPY drops from 122 to 116 level.
Now, if you're confused about this probability then maybe you should start hedge your account and clear up position till the condition better. But let's discuss some pairs movement for now. (Someone requested it)
Silver moves a little bit following presidential debate but it's not really far away from my entry yesterday. For now it's a little hard to predict the short term movement but long term direction still the same, bullish. If you can hold a long term position then buy the dips but if you can't then don't do it.
Gold did try to push up but went down again following the presidential debate. It's still trading is a certain range around 1330 - 1340. Seems like a catalyst is needed for this pair to break either way.
"What kind of catalyst?" " Will it be the CB Consumer Confidence today?"
Unless that data shows a shocking change, it will not. Most likely it will be the data from the next day.
"Why are you not highlighting Fischer's speech?"
Federal Reserve members are all talks and i am quite tired of it. But Yellen Testifies might be different and Bullard view right after the testification might be important.
Durable good data will impact GDP later and this is interesting to be watched. If both data are negatives, then precious metal might rally further. You have seen that even if stocks market goes up, precious metal is not rallying much at all. So the correlation between then is thin.
At my current view, precious metal might be much higher in the future. Think about it, if some country print their money then the value of the money will drop, right? But what about Gold? They can't print gold and they have limited number. It is even a tabboo for banks to discuss about gold but they are holding golds and keep buying them slowly.
And let's talk about the bubble for now as for why i'm very bullish on precious metal on long term horizon. Main reason of all, paper money will be worthless later. Seriously! No joke!
Have you heard about QE (money printing)? What are the central bankers say? QE is success, everything is good and improving. So, let's try to dig around some data and find out!
First take a look at balance sheet. Balance sheet increase from around 900.000 million USD to 4.400.000 million USD from the crisis (they started printing money) until now.
The total increase from the first money printing until now is... 388%
Let's take a look at the debt problem then...
Debt increase from around 900.000 million usd as well to 19.500.000 million usd. BOOM! This is the real BOOM! The debt increase from the money printing to now is 2066% in total!
So... let's try to count the annual debt per person in US right now...
SO, each person in US got a debt around $60.640
Hello, i can buy 2-3 apartments with that money in my country already... so each person got that much debt? Yes! That is why they are in a bubble! Let's try to do some other calculation about how money printed from FED being used for their growth from M2 data and let's check the GDP growth with it.
Total GDP got a growth of 24%.
So why are all people turning a blind eye on this? Check how crazy the current condition is!
Balance Sheet increase 388% with debt increase a total 2066% only for 24% GDP growth and 68% M2 Growth!
PLUS EACH PERSON FROM US GOT A $60.640 DEBT RIGHT NOW.
Why FED is looking so strong and it seems that economic condition is great? It's a bluff, once they tell you the reality, you will be forced to accept the current condition and the worst crisis will come. That is when the bubble will pops. That is why i'm very bullish in precious metal such as Gold and Silver.
Why FED's QE program failed this much?
Well... the funny thing is no wants to get too much debt. Even if they wish to get a loan from the bank, not all of them are qualified for it.
Stocks market is doing well, they won't fall at all.
No, actually it is going up simply because from buybacks.
So what will goes up when the bubble burst?
Precious metal will be a safe haven during that time. The value will keep increasing and many people will flood their money to precious metal. You will find that the demand will raise too much until there are no more gold left in the market. Then they will start to search for silvers since it's cheaper as well.
The bubble has come to critical level and it won't be weird for it to burst at any moment. (chance increases by each rate hike Fed members do). Just try to protect your asset first and if you can use this opportunity to get rich, you will not regret it. Think carefully before you invest and mind your risk management. Make a strategy to make you survive from the volatility and be the winner. Good Luck to you all!
I'll be covering some currencies analysis later, time to grab some food first!
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